Oscars: Best Picture — The Year Without a Frontrunner Includes Biopics, Musicals and Flying Witches (2024)

VarietyAwards Circuitsection is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars,Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated byVarietysenior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

Best Picture commentary (Updated Nov. 27, 2024): The first batch of screeners is released the week of Thanksgiving, and voters will watch them over the holiday weekend. So, where does it all stand?

In Los Angeles, Searchlight Pictures hosted two packed screenings of “A Complete Unknown” at the Fox Lot, followed by Q&A sessions featuring director and co-writer James Mangold, actors Monica Barbaro and Elle Fanning, costume designer Arianne Phillips, and production designer François Audouy. Chalamet, currently filming Josh Safdie’s new period project “Marty Supreme,” was notably absent, but his presence wasn’t needed to dominate the conversation. His portrayal of Dylan has already sparked widespread acclaim, positioning him as one of the frontrunners in the best actor race.

Mangold’s ability to deliver a commercially appealing yet artistically ambitious film could help “A Complete Unknown” secure a coveted best picture nomination. His previous films, including “Ford v Ferrari,” have shown his knack for balancing artistic merit with audience accessibility — a quality voters in the expanded best picture category may appreciate.

Neon’s “Anora,” written and directed by Sean Baker, has topped the charts for the first time, building momentum as it garners near-universal acclaim from critics and audiences alike. With its sensitive portrayal of contemporary struggles, “Anora” has transcended the art-house niche, becoming one of the season’s most talked-about films. Its carefully paced release strategy and glowing word-of-mouth have placed it at the forefront of this year’s Oscar race, marking a potential high point in Baker’s career.

Universal Pictures’ “Wicked” has dominated the headlines, while industry screenings and Q&As have been underway over the past week. Sony Pictures held a SAG NomCom screening with the cast of “Saturday Night” on Monday evening, and the sizeable, sprawling ensemble was the highlight. The highlight was bolstered by a passionate speech from cast member Robert Wuhl, who spoke about the importance of awards to an actor’s livelihood, generating roaring applause from the crowd. Those are the types of moments that can lead to recognition.

The same can be said for Netflix’s Spanish-language musical “Emilia Pérez,” which received a standing ovation for its star, Karla Sofía Gascón, at a SAG Q&A that I moderated. If the awards campaign stays the course, she could be on her way to making history.

Paramount Pictures’ “Gladiator II” has also made an impact, albeit with a more mixed critical reception. The film currently holds a respectable 77% on Rotten Tomatoes and a Metascore of 67, suggesting a solid, if not universally raved-about, response. History shows, however, that such scores don’t necessarily hinder a film’s awards prospects. Both James Cameron’s “Avatar: The Way of Water” and the original “Gladiator” held similar Metascores, with “Gladiator” ultimately winning Best Picture. The first “Joker” (2019) scored 68% on Rotten Tomatoes and 59 on Metacritic but led the Oscar nominations with 11 nods. Likewise, Peter Farrelly’s “Green Book,” a divisive Best Picture winner, held a 77% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 69 on Metacritic. Ultimately, critics’ reviews don’t always dictate a film’s Oscar fate, just as high praise doesn’t guarantee a nomination. Films like Debra Granik’s “Leave No Trace” (2018) and Remi Weekes’ “His House” (2020), both members of the 100% Rotten Tomatoes club, received critical acclaim but were overlooked by the Academy.

The 97thOscarswill be held on Sunday, March 2. All movie listings, titles, distributors, and credited artisans are not final and are subject to change.